S&P… The clown still riding the bull

April 21st, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

 

Does it matter that everyone thinks the S&P rally the last few weeks is "false hope? the answer is NO.  The Market will correct itself when its Damn Ready and not anytime sooner.  Liars figure and figures lie.  This saying is nothing new.  The market will gyrate up and down. One day on the downside is nothing to be concerned about.  The idea to short the market, from a traders point, will come from the charts. Yes its timing. Yes it's the ability to read charts and yes you do have to watch the market.

Its earning season.  This is typical ...some firms miss, some firms hit , and yes even on the hits accounting plays a roll.   We know this.  It is nothing new.  History does say we are in for a pull back... duh!  We know this as well.  Be ready for it.  This is a traders market.  End of story. Listen to the talking heads on the TV ( you know who they are) will not only take you to the circus, but they will beat you like a clown.

Let the market tell you when to get short. Call me we can discuss more. Lets get the odds in our favor. Not Theirs!

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

312.697.2052

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

Animal House

April 8th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

I quote the movie Animal House.  "Over? Nothing is over until we decide it is.  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, Hell no!  We are the greatest country in the world. "I do agree that we are the greatest country in the world. As for the rally in the S&P, lets be careful we really don't decide anything.  We are still in a bear market, but the market is holding pretty well ,800 on the S&P seems to be some support, a floor if you will, it was the January lows before we made new lows.  Resistance is still 850 in the S&P's

If America is as great most of us think, I'm willing to predict that the 850 resistance level, during this earnings season, will be broken and with a close over that level, we could be heading up to the 900 -950 area like I said before in previous posts.  Again, that doesn't mean that we could not go down and test the low again - which we probably will. But what will get the S&P back down to the lows.  We had Bad #'s in employment ( and we expect more), Alcoa earnings were terrible ( we expect more), Bankruptcy looms for GM ( we expect more big name companies to go belly up) and seeing signs that interest in TALF program is falling off from initial level ( another program that didnt work) and the market continues to hold. Is this market really overbought? Is the S&P that strong holding all this bearish news? With earnings coming out , it might be that one little surprise that we hold on to like ray of hope that makes us get over the 850 hump.  We all know that earnings cant be good can they? Maybe the Ray of Hope might be money coming back into the market with  mergers and acquisitions that might be the surprise and not earnings. A long weekend coming up, low volume, might be another option play.  Call or email me if you want some advice.

This is a slow week and tomorrow might be even slower and Friday is a Holiday - Good Friday.  More earnings out next week and weeks to come. Have a good holiday.  Hold on to the ray of hope and maybe we can decide when its over.

 

Resistance

850 to 862 levels

Support

800-794 and 784

 

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading

 

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

312.987.2052

AH! SUGAR, SUGAR!

March 24th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Searching the commodity quote board, I stop at the softs section. of the board.  SUGAR!,  Yes, you can trade Sugar at Manduca Trading. Everytime I trade sugar, I sing that song. from the commercial, "AH SUGAR ,SUGAR".  Sugar can be a sweet trade.
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Insurance for a bear market rally

March 23rd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

I have always been a fan of insurance. It seems like a waste of money, until you have an accident with your car, bad storm blows your roof off, or you have a household appliance  thats on the fritz. Insurance is there to help you when you need it the most.

What does this have to do with trading? Well, you can hedge your portfolio's recent gains, especially in a bear market rally.
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Futures VS ETF… Another Reason to Trade Futures!

March 19th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

A couple of Blogs ago, I mentioned that there is a possible double top in the Dollar.  The trading idea was to sell the Dollar on a possible double top. 
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Dont get peppered!

March 17th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Watching the Obama Press Secretary "get peppered" with questions about AIG, I couldn't help to notice
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OK OK OK lets talk about Oil

March 12th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

OK, OK, OK, lets talk about Crude Oil.  Technically speaking,
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Side note…

March 12th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments » June is now top step.  Which means you should be trading the June contract in the S&P. Also, you might want to roll to June in Currencies and interest rate products as well. Any Questions Please Call Me! 800-288-8802 or Email me at dheltmach@manducatrading.com Good Trading, Dave Heltmach Manduca Trading LLC

The Once And Mighty King!

March 10th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

The once and might king... The US Dollar.  For the last 7 or so years, investors have been selling the dollar.  As the Financial Crisis as been heating up, The dollar has gotten stronger, why?

The dollar has been rising since
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I wake up every morning and I want to Buy

March 6th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Yes. Its True.  I wake up every morning and want to buy!  Just like everyone else. Things are
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