Another Doji Comeon!

June 2nd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Another Doji! In the S&P's! My eyes are as big as a child looking at an ice cream sunday with a cherry on top and all the trimmings.  Now I have been around the internet looking on message boards, facebook, twitters, etc.  and some one called this formation in the S&P an NR7 formation. He's wrong. and here's why:

1st.   It is above yesterdays high

2nd:  It is not the narrowest range in the last 7 days.

But it is a Doji! Yes another Doji for all those candlestick purest out there. A perfect one have been a close of 939 even. But we all know how the markets are not perfect.

There is a lot of support to break especially on the lower end 919, 910, 901 and even 900. then 979 and then the dreaded 875 level.  So my best indication is if there is a confirmation tonight or tomorrow I would be a seller of the S&P's. Again there has to be a confirmation move 1st.

Call or email me if you need help with confirmations.

Good Trading,

Dave

Manduca Trading

312.987.2052

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

Just looking at the markets

May 26th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

After a long weekend and a short week for me this week ( I'm going fishing).  I'll have something to say shortly.

Good Trading

Dave Heltmach

I’m calling the Swine… I said I would do it

May 20th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Here PIGGY PIGGY .  SOEWEEEEEE!  I saw a Doji yesterday and the follow through came today. I don't know how far this can go lower, but today was very telling. Look at the chart. Technically speaking its a sell. Yes I'm talking about the S&P's Futures.  It could be bad .No one with a right mind would go home long or for that matter go home long over the holiday weekend. Unless your the PPT.

New chart feature still getting use to it. It will get better

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

800.288.8802

Pondering the BBQ, Beer and the Bear.

May 18th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

There are times when I wonder and times when I don't. Concepts I ponder and concepts I won't ever see. The S&P is up this morning. I'm not surprised. A holiday market tends to trend higher.  I have said in the past that the S&P futures could see 950.00.  I'm lowering that down to 936ish.  We are in no danger of an overbought situation since before the options expiration.  We have A holiday coming up. Memorial Day. What better way to make grill talk - flipping burgers, turning the dogs, watching the kids play in the field, and drinking an ice cold brew by saying the market is making a come back and the worse is over.

I do not believe the worse is over. I believe we are in the eye of the storm. There is no fundamental news out there to make me believe that we are out of this crisis.  Unemployment is still raising, Credit cards are in default, commercial and residential property still defaulting, taxes on the rise, government debit on the rise and scores of other things.  Earnings are pretty much out of the way. Can the S&P stay up at these levels? We need one thing. Momentum.  It's still a traders market and nothing can be taken for granted.

S&P still has a a combined spec and fund position net long of over 75K as of early last week, and the trend is up. We are hugging the trend line, but nonetheless we are trending upward. Until that is broken we shall continue. One has to assume that break is coming and it could be painful.  Lets enjoy the holiday rally, but keep in mind...Just when everyone is talking the green shoots of spring, the bear comes out of the woods and we are on the run.

Good trading,

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

800.288.8802

The Crossroads…is the Devil playing the Fiddle?

May 12th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Are we going higher? Are we going lower? We are at the crossroads and the devil is on the stump about to open his case and start playing. But will he? He is a pretty good fiddle player and we don't want him to start, at least not yet.  This is options expiration week a lot can happen. Putting those Dec. put options on earlier last week was a smart move. I have some protection if the Devil and his band of demons start playing a little early.

I showed you a chart yesterday of the S&P and its sad face. It is down with the frown right now. Currently S&P is at 905.00.  Some good support at 900.00 we need to get a close or a significant move under before we see some follow through.   I still would like to see the market go higher as it is option expiration week for a chance to buy more puts or an out right sell in the S&P...looking for that technical opportunity I love so well. But lets not forget our old friend the devil , He is in the house of the risin' sun and he's a Damn good fiddle player.

Good to hear from the followers.  I can always be reached at dheltmach@manducatrading.com or 800.288.8802

Good trading,

 Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

Is this the Time? Looks like a sad face!

May 11th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Did the S&P go high enough? I don't know... But What I do know is by Looking at the chart Below. There seems to be a lot of resistance between 928-950.  Currently before the market opens we are at 912.25 Down 12.50.  I would like to see a pop in this market in the next day or two to add to my option (puts) position.   Unless I see something technically to go short the S&P outright, Options is the way to play this game.  Again, Looking at the December put Options at the money - waiting for a pop to add to it.  The S&P chart below illustrates the resistance.  Still looking for an objective. It could be a significant move considering how far we have come off the lows.  Call or email me if you have any questions.  Its getting pretty interesting.  The chart looks like a sad face! How ironic. Don't you think?

Good Trading,

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

800.288.8802

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

Precious time -Que Sera

May 4th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

I'm starting to look at options now for the S&P. Why, because it's at a psychological point the 900 level.  I think we still go higher. My objective to the 950ish level,  I don't think that this 900 level will hold for any major resistance and a couple days of dancing around this level will be normal and no need the cause for panic.  I am going to take a little insurance, a put option. I'm not going to get married to it or sit on it until it expires, but something I do want is what I call a Little Van Morrison- PRECIOUS TIME.  It doesn't matter what route you take. Sooner or later the hearts going to break. No rhyme or reason, no master plan, no Nirvana, no promised land.  I'm buying a little time with the December looking at the money put options in the S&P500.  If it breaks when your not looking or when you wake up; you got your insurance.  Remember this is a traders market, Be prepared to reprice them as the market goes higher and say Que Sera, whatever will be.

Call me at 800-288-8802

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading.

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

Dont Sell The Swine Until Its Time.

April 28th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments » While is not yet the time. For my followers, you have seen my other posts like: Insurance For A Bear Market Rally, I Wake Up In The Morning And Want To Buy, and Animal House. If you read them, you know that I'm bullish the S&P...but that's going to change. Not now, but the time is coming.

While we had a nice rally. We all heard the stories that "market is always ahead of the bottom, and maybe the worst is over?" but maybe not.  You are going to hear me blog about shorting the S&P soon.   The market is getting to an overbought condition and the market is due for a correction how deep? I don't know, but it could be pretty deep and we need to get in the mindset.

I still think the S&P is going to 900+ , after that, (or unless something changes) , I will be blogging and looking for the opportunity to sell this market. When the farmer yells SOOWEEE! and those fat pigs come a running looking for food.  That's going to be the opportunity to sell, buy puts or what ever you want to do.  I will blog about it and stand on my soap box. You'll have time to do it.  So get ready to ring the dinner bell and watch them come to slaughter.  Remember let the market come to you and Don't Sell The Swine Until Its Time. Might want to reread my blog earlier  Insurance For A Bear Market Rally.

There is a risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex.

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

312.987.2052

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

The Best thing for the S&P might be Swine Flu and Fear!

April 27th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

A serious outbreak of swine flu is a very dangerous thing not only for people but for the economy as well.  But maybe, just maybe a little Swine Flu is what the market needs to stay healthy.  What? I know what you might be saying.  Did he just say Swine flu maybe healthy for the S&P's?  Yes I sure did!

The S&P's have come a long way since the lows that were established on March 6th. S&P's were in a free fall now they are defying gravity, defying bad unemployment numbers, and other bad economic reports. What brings it down Swine Flu? Come on. Just 20 cases in America with the possibility of more cases coming out. OK, OK it is something to be concerned about, I'll admit that; but here we go again. Fear. It's peaked its ugly head out again.  You must fear Swine Flu. You must fear bank failures, you must fear commercial property failures.  Fear. Fear. Fear. Why does the media and the government, keep installing fear in to our minds. There have been housing bubbles, oil bubbles, and tech bubbles. We might be in a Fear Bubble. Are we in a fear age?  It was Roosevelt that said in a time of crisis that "there is noting to fear except fear itself." History has taught that the American people should be experts on fear.

Don't take you eye off the prize. Market is a little over heated agressive traders will add on the dip. If your just starting look for the place to get in.  Nothing has changed yet.  Still looking for S&P's to get over 900+.  When we get there, It might make you squeal like a pig.

Support 850.00 ,835.00, 825.00

Resistance 857.00, 864-868 and 872

Call me, email me to the blog ad to the discussion

Dave Heltmach

Manduca Trading LLC

dheltmach@manducatrading.com

800-288-8802

This is our sandbox, Lets play awhile

April 23rd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Yes it is . This is our sandbox.  We play in it everyday. We build it.  We can throw sand, play with our trucks and take our GI Joes and bury them if we want.  Why because its our sandbox.  S&P's are in the what I like to call "comfortable."
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