Gallows Pole

November 10th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

"Friends, did you get some silver? Did you get a little gold? What did you bring me to keep me from the gallows pole." - Led Zeppelin.

We been talking about gold for centuries. The Gold rush took place in the 19th century pretty much all over the world - The United States, Australia, Brazil Canada and South Africa. But it wasn't just in the 19th Century, gold rush date back to the Conquest of the Aztecs, the Roman Empire and Ancient Egypt. So what is the reason for this centuries gold rush with gold up over $1100.

The most recent catalyst behind the surge in gold prices was the announcement from India that the country purchased 200 Tons from he International Monetary Fund. Many traders views India's purchase as a setting the floor on the price of gold. If the price goes down again the thinking is India will purchase additional amounts. I would not go as far as to say that Central banks are buying gold to convert to a gold standard, because there is just not enough of it in circulation. But I will say that investors big and small alike, because of the world's crisis, are accumulating gold. Also I am sure that China would be expect to improve their diversity further out of Dollars and Gold is a logical step.

A interesting sidebar about the US Gold Reserves.

It turns out the Fed is holding a “golden” quiver in their cap, in the form of gold bars. "Since 1971, the Fed decided to price those bars at $42.22 per troy ounce, for a value around $11 billion. With the price of gold at $1100 those holdings are worth nearly $250 billion. The Fed never felt it necessary to float those holdings to market. This is not enough to compensate for the Fed’s $2 trillion balance sheet, but does provide additional options should the Fed need access to liquidity."

Lets hope that the Hangman of spending and debit doesn't laugh and pull so hard that we all will be swing from the Gallows pole.

Dave Heltmach
Manduca Trading

At Manduca Trading, a new Accumulation program allows you to purchase gold and silver or a combination of both. Investors who wish to participate in the Precious Metals market can now do so with a low cost barrier minimum of just $ 50.00 per month for silver, $100 per month for gold, and $200 per month for gold/silver split. This allows you the power of $ cost averaging to the small investors in Precious Metals. Give us a call or email and learn more.

www.manducatrading.com

Anticipation

November 4th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

"We can never know about the days to come, But we think about them anyway. And I wonder if I'm really just chasing after some finer day." Carly Simon.

The anticipation of the FOMC meeting later today 1:15 CST. is getting to me what are the going to do. They cant raise interest rates. They cant. The release of ADP report did show there was a slowing of unemployment - but folks that is not good news, people are still getting laid off. Unemployment on Friday will be key, but I'm sure it will show it is slowing but show another 400k-500K. So the fact of the matter is the FOMC will leave rates unchanged. So whats the deal?

The deal is we need to watch the rhetoric and see if that's changing. The anticipation of a change is what traders will look at when they release their statement at 1:15 CST.

What would Carly Simon say? "I'm no prophet, I don't know natures way, Anticipation is keeping me waiting."
Time will tell.

BTW looks like the trend line held on the last comment. Look for yourselves. Lets see what what the FOMC says we then can react.

Give me a me call lets look at some opportunities

David Heltmach
Manduca Trading LLC

A Friend

October 27th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Jimmy Page once wrote: "Bright light almost blinding, Black night still there shining, I can't stop, keep on climbing, Looking for what I knew". So here I am, looking for what I know. I stare at this chart everyday. I keep on saying to myself and repeating the old trader cliche... "The trend is your friend". Yes I'm trying to find my innersoul, contacting that god of traders to help me find the light on this black hole we call the S&P.
Here's what I know...they can be down days, there's going to be up days and I do know there is going to be a correction but when and if this market turns over what do I do? Do I hedge? Do I liquidate? or do I do an option strategy that involves selling at the money calls and create a little income stream?

The market does look heavy. The trend lines are there, But the dollar is rising. If the Dollar rises too fast it will be too late. What to do? What to trade? So I look to Jimmy for so advice and he tells me "Mmm, I'm telling you now,The greatest thing you ever can do now,I s trade a smile with someone who's blue now, It's very easy just.
What does it all mean?

Give me a call or shoot me an email
Dave Heltmach
Manduca Trading LLC

C - O - N - F -I - DENCE

October 23rd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

With a C and an O and an N and an F and I and a Dence. Put them all together and what you got... Confidence. Remember the tortoise and the hare, that had the famous race. The speed hair ended nowhere and slow poke to 1st place, because he had confidence. The Dollar right now needs confidence. What kind of confidence. Job Creation. That should be the number one goal of our Administration right now. Not more unemployment benefits, not health care, not road repairs. That's the stuff in good times. We are in crisis mood. Tax and spend never worked. Taxing the rich never worked. Its time for the right policies to restore confidence in the dollar. Our leaders are bickering over fruitless items that are not on the priority list. A lot of things happen when our dollar depreciates. Commodity prices start to rise, which means we pay more for Oil, Gas, Food. This is only creating more problems. A stronger Dollar is in the best interest for the world.

I believe that this is going to happen soon. Why? Because I have Confidence in America. Call me crazy, but I think it is time to start to buy American. I'm looking at buying at the money calls options in the Dollar Index in March for a little test on this dollar and maybe build a position for a trend to the upside. We'll see how this test goes. My belief is for the policy to change in favor of the US Dollar. It might not be the right time but when the Dollar does turn it ill be fast. We can always get out of these options take a small loss and live to trade another day. Sitting on my hands is not how I want to trade. Lets grab the bull by the horns and shake him and wake him up and keep the bear at bay.



Dave Heltmach
Manduca Trading LLC

Is it a Monster Movie?

October 14th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

As Halloween approaches, I cannot help and think of a famous movie cult classic - An American Werewolf in London. The Market kind of reminds me of this movie. You hear "Don't go by the Moors, stay by road." I know we all seen the commercials, the road is green. It is ironic that a commercial come out like that. Are we in a reality horror movie? No advice is more irreverent in any horror film. The same can be said for the market and these levels. Not to long ago, we all were in the hospital with bite marks on our neck! We listened to the barking of the talking heads and bloodletting of many of our biggest financial institutions falling one by one.

The market a year ago resembled a cross between a bear and a wolverine. It didn't stop at one specific industry it clawed, bit, and tore apart many. The US was on the verge of total economic failure. Did we just dream that this hybrid creature that no one has ever seen the likes of, crossed the entire world gimping economies one by one and bringing down the worlds biggest to all fours gasping for air?

Then one day in March, just as spring arrived. The light of the sun started to break the darkness, the birds started singing and when the Green Shoots appeared, POOF! , The creature was gone. This hybrid monster that we all created just vanish into thin air. Dust yourself off and come out of your hiding places.

Ask yourself this.... Was this all just a dream?

Happy Halloween

Dave Heltmach
Manduca Trading LLC

Is the Holiday Rally Over?

July 1st, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Now is the time to put your trades cap on!

June 23rd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

So I been following the S&P for some time now. I actually look at other futures markets as well, in fact 35 different commodities.  But I'm focus at the moment of the S&P.  Some of these ideas can be used not just for futures but also the futures options, SPY options and SPY.  I don't put every single detail in the Blog or the charts but I offer everyone to comment on the ideas, charts, etc. either by Email, comment directly from the blog site, or call me with any questions. I am more then happy to speak, reply, etc to anyone. With that said, today is the start of a two day fed meeting. These days are pretty low volume days leading up to the announcement and minutes.  The dog days of summer and the recession doesn't help either.  but that doesn't mean there are not opportunities.

The last blog I didn't say much because I thought the picture says it all.  It still does. So I updated the chart and I'll make a few comments.

The market is doing everything I thought it would do.  The 900 level is significant because it is psychological and it's a technical pattern. We broke through that level yesterday but more importantly we closed under it.  The market is weak. Yesterday we were oversold and this morning it came back a little currently +250 off the close yesterday.  This little movement in the night session and the time it took it to do it,  has caused the  market to push out of the oversold area still keeping the market weak. I would like to see the market go and retest the 900 level but it doesn't have too.  Another pattern that is forming is a possible Head and shoulder. It is pretty obvious, and I'm sure every trader inthe world is looking at it, so it might take some insight and time and a keen eye to form the RT shoulder,  if it happens.  Also we are now under the 200 day moving average.

As we look at the chart, it is now that we really have to really think of what the market is trying to tell us and we have to put on that traders cap to really take advantage of this market.

Dave Heltmach
Manduca Trading LLC

Just A Reminder - Risk announcement

June 17th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments » There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading.

No words yet! Just chart

June 16th, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Another Doji Comeon!

June 2nd, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Another Doji! In the S&P's! My eyes are as big as a child looking at an ice cream sunday with a cherry on top and all the trimmings.  Now I have been around the internet looking on message boards, facebook, twitters, etc.  and some one called this formation in the S&P an NR7 formation. He's wrong. and here's why:

1st.   It is above yesterdays high

2nd:  It is not the narrowest range in the last 7 days.

But it is a Doji! Yes another Doji for all those candlestick purest out there. A perfect one have been a close of 939 even. But we all know how the markets are not perfect.

There is a lot of support to break especially on the lower end 919, 910, 901 and even 900. then 979 and then the dreaded 875 level.  So my best indication is if there is a confirmation tonight or tomorrow I would be a seller of the S&P's. Again there has to be a confirmation move 1st.

Call or email me if you need help with confirmations.

Good Trading,

Dave

Manduca Trading

312.987.2052

dheltmach@manducatrading.com